Post-Model Smoke
Preference fingerprints for model routing and drift.
Built from SmokingMirror forced-choice probes. Source: smokingmirror.com. Data mirror: smokingmirror.ai.
863
probe pairs
43
model nodes
5
providers
Operational rules
- Use low-N, decisive models when the job needs a crisp preference or classification.
- Use high-caution models when the job benefits from refusal-aware compliance posture.
- Treat same-family distance jumps as model drift; rerun app evals before trusting old behavior.
- Use far-apart models as critics/adversaries, not interchangeable replacements.
- Escalate when candidate models violently disagree on domain-critical probes.
Dwayne Router scorecard
| Dwayne job | Top model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Coding | claude-opus-4.7 | 87.1 |
| Planning | claude-opus-4.7 | 85.9 |
| Cautious Household Actions | gpt-5.5 | 100.0 |
| Financial Caution | gpt-5.5 | 100.0 |
| Creative Ideation | claude-opus-4.7 | 87.9 |
| Adversarial Review | claude-opus-4.7 | 81.8 |
| Crisp Classification | claude-opus-4.7 | 85.1 |
Provider coverage
| Provider | Models |
|---|---|
| anthropic | 20 |
| openai | 11 |
| deepseek | 5 |
| 4 | |
| x-ai | 3 |
Highest no-preference / refusal-like fingerprints
| Model | Provider | N-rate | A | B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| deepseek-v3.2 | deepseek | 91.0% | 48 | 30 |
| gpt-5.4-nano | openai | 89.1% | 46 | 48 |
| deepseek-chat-v3 | deepseek | 88.1% | 48 | 55 |
| deepseek-v4-pro | deepseek | 87.8% | 43 | 62 |
| gpt-5.4-mini | openai | 84.1% | 72 | 65 |
| deepseek-v4-flash | deepseek | 83.3% | 73 | 71 |
| gpt-4o-mini | openai | 82.5% | 87 | 64 |
| deepseek-r1 | deepseek | 81.6% | 70 | 89 |
Most decisive fingerprints
| Model | Provider | N-rate | A | B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude-fable-5@40-max-2026-06-10 | anthropic | 4.5% | 396 | 428 |
| claude-fable-5@30-xhigh-2026-06-10 | anthropic | 4.6% | 400 | 423 |
| claude-fable-5@20-high-2026-06-10 | anthropic | 5.7% | 392 | 422 |
| claude-fable-5@10-medium-2026-06-10 | anthropic | 6.0% | 394 | 417 |
| claude-fable-5@00-low-2026-06-10 | anthropic | 7.3% | 387 | 413 |
| claude-opus-4 | anthropic | 29.3% | 279 | 331 |
| claude-opus-4-7@2026-05-29 | anthropic | 29.5% | 283 | 325 |
| claude-opus-4.7 | anthropic | 31.9% | 273 | 315 |